Scenario Planning
Seeing a long-term vision in focus
The Uncertainty Paradox states that the only certainty is uncertainty. No one can predict the future but your organisation can prepare for multiple futures. I help risk professionals ensure their executive is never caught like a deer stuck in the headlights.
Great scenario planning :
Great scenario planning :
- Prepares leaders for multiple futures
- Forces thinking beyond the norm
- Results in one flexible strategy that provides for 80% of future scenarios
No matter your industry, mining, renewable energy, health, emergency services or a policy making government agency, I can help you imagine, describe and focus on future disruptive opportunities and risks.
Without the lateral thinking and creative writing of scenarios, the inherent bias that resides deep in our brains will prevail. The team will build on what they know rather than what they can be led to imagine.
I love working with teams that understand the world is changing, that the next disruption is just over the horizon and that they can own the future opportunities it presents.
Scenario planning for me is about placing long-term, incredible to imagine scenarios into a funnel. Aligning one strategy towards the majority of them, adding in new scenarios every year and moving the other scenarios through the funnel That is, the scenarios are moved through the funnel by asking the question “Was this assumption right or wrong?” If for one particular scenario you are answering “wrong” often enough, the scenario exits the funnel to be replaced by a new scenario. It is important to orientate your strategy to cater for as many scenarios as possible or the most likely ones. Having a flexible strategy is critical and even more critical is knowing when to re-orientate it.