I follow Nassim Taleb’s (author of The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable) lead which is to not pay too much attention to business news otherwise you might start to believe you really do know what is going on in the market. He says, don’t read it every day, it’s better to absorb,
I was helping an organisation develop a risk appetite statement recently. The board members had not previously been exposed to such a “device” and as you would expect were a little reticent. While I pride myself on being able to communicate the value of more formal approaches to risk management in a way that it
Risk Leadership: What is the purpose of a policy or a framework? I have seen many, many corporate policies and frameworks in my time. The one great tendency of the authors of policies and frameworks is to put way too much information into them. The other day I decided to sit down and sort out
This blog from Pete Cook about aiming to fail 50% of your projects each quarter is so right in the context of risk and decision making. All my research, whether it is McKinsey Global Surveys or academic research such as the work of Professor Paul Nutt of Ohio State University and his analysis of more
This article from the Wharton University of Pennsylvania entitled Confidence Games: Why People Don’t Trust Machines to Be Right highlights the issue of placing trust in our own judgement even though the facts tell us otherwise. In the article, Wharton professor Cade Massey and doctoral student Berkeley Dietvorst explain that once we use a predictive